Silver Lining, Dark Cloud Over NY Public Schools

There is a silver lining to the dark cloud hanging over New York public schools.  It is NOT my intention to lend any credence to the bogus and very dismal results of the NYSED Colossal Mistake a/k/a the 2012-13 State Assessments, which essentially cut in half the prevailing percentage of the state’s students who had been “on-grade-level” prior to this past school year. However, digging deeper into the data provided valuable alternative perspectives (to the obvious implication that we really and truly stink) on the status of public education in New York.

One such perspective is to view the 2012-13 Assessments as being similar to the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and Dodd-Frank Act (DFA) stress tests applied to the nation’s largest banks by the Federal Reserve to assure that, despite their being “too big to fail” that they can survive serious economic events.  Of course, the Federal Reserve performs the banking stress tests using scenarios instead of using people’s actual accounts and money, while NYSED used actual students and their live, real assessment tests and scores to stress our public schools.  The Federal Reserve’s scenario-based stress tests have renewed the public’s and regulators’ confidence in our financial (banking) systems; NYSED has decimated public confidence, but especially parents’ and students’ confidence in our schools, and, along with trashing the performance ratings of our school districts, confidence in our teachers and administrators has taken a huge and undeserved hit from these recent Assessment scores.  

So, where is this silver lining?  The 2012-13 NY Assessments yielded two critical views of the state’s 700 school districts

1.       PASS REGARDLESS OF STRESS view

2.       FAILED UNDER STRESS view.

Here, the following disclaimer is issued by me:  the overall raw scores of the 2012-13 NY Assessments should NOT be considered accurate for the purposes of determining NCLB-mandated remedial or supportive services for which those assessments were created, nor for evaluating teacher performance, which APPR has mandated to be linked to assessment scores.

Methodology.

I looked at all school districts in NY, and then focused solely on 8th Grade ELA & Math results.  There were 688 districts with 197,000 eighth graders assessed.  All “Out-of-District Placements” and all districts with fewer than 100 eighth grade scores reported were suppressed from analysis,.  The resulting universe was 383 school districts with 100 or more in-district 8th graders whose scores were reported.  I then analyzed the districts with the best “passing” performance and, separately, the districts with the worst “failing” performance.  “Passing” and “failing” are strictly relevant to the numerical scores of this year’s assessments (1, 2, 3, 4) regardless of the veracity or probative value of those scores or the implications of their performance ratings (worst to best).

PASS REGARDLESS OF STRESS.

I believe the PASS REGARDLESS OF STRESS view to be the most valuable byproduct of the assessments.  Which districts did very well under the suddenly tougher testing regiment? 

Data points for the best Passing school districts in NY:

·         103 Districts attained combined ELA & Math “passing” scores (3 or 4) greater than 50%

·         102 Districts attained ELA passing scores (3 or 4) greater than 50%

·           44 Districts attained Math passing scores (3 or 4) greater that 50%

·         35,752 ELA & Math assessment scores were reported  among those 103 districts, representing about 17,300 students

·         These students scored as follows on the ELA, Math or both tests as follows:

o   Score of 4 = 23%

o   Score of 3 = 37%

o   Score of 2 = 31%

o   Score of 1 = 10%

·         Not every “best passing” district met the best passing criteria for both ELA and Math together

·         60 of the best districts in ELA were not among the best districts in Math

·         Only one (1) of the best districts in Math was not also among the best districts in ELA.

·         Top Ten Best Passing Performance Districts in NY, 2013 8th Grade ELA & Math Assessment Scores, (with 100 or more students’ in-district scores reported)

1.       Fayetteville-Manlius Central, Onondaga County

2.       Briarcliff Manor, Westchester County

3.       Jericho, Nassau County

4.       Byram Hills Central, Westchester

5.       Chappaqua Central, Westchester

6.       Pittsford Central, Monroe County

7.       Blind Brook-Rye, Westchester

8.       Katonah-Lewisboro, Westchester

9.       Scarsdale, Westchester

10.     Herricks, Nassau

·         Top Ten Best Passing Performance Districts on LI, 2013 8th Grade ELA & Math Assessment Scores with ranking (against NYS Districts:

o   Jericho (3)

o   Herricks (10)

o   Garden City (11)

o   Syosset Central (12)

o   Manhasset (13)

o   Port Jefferson 14)

o   Great Neck (21)

o   Half Hollow Hills Central (22)

o   Hewlett-Woodmere (28)

o   Roslyn (31)

·         Five Nearest School Districts Among Best Passing, with Ranking

o   Massapequa (48)

o   Seaford  (62)

o   Bethpage (63)

o   East Meadow (84)

o   Island Trees (96)

o   Wantagh (did not make the cut of best passing districts, having less than 50% passing in both ELA and Math)

·         Only 21 out of NY State’s 62 counties had school districts ranked among the best passing districts:

o   Westchester (25 Districts)

o   Nassau (24 Districts)*

o   Suffolk (14 Districts)

o   Erie (8 Districts)

o   Monroe (6 Districts)

o   Rockland (4 Districts)

o   Albany (3 Districts)

o   Onondaga (3 Districts)

o   Niagara (2 Districts)

o   Orange (2 Districts)

o   Saratoga (2 Districts)

o   Ten (10) Counties each had one (1) “best passing” district, including New York (Manhattan) and Queens

o   Forty one (41) Counties had no school districts ranked among the “best passing”

* Nassau County’s 24 “best passing” rated districts represent 53% of the 45 districts reporting 100 or more in-district ELA and/or Math passing assessment scores.

While volumes could be written, editorializing on the best performance school districts, I prefer to sum up succinctly: Seaford may not be Jericho, but Wantagh could surely be Seaford, or Bethpage, or Island Trees.  I urge readers to keep in mind that this review focused on 8th Grade ELA and Math Assessments from districts with 100 or more in-district 8th graders tested in either or both subject areas. 

Raw data from NYSED Information & Reporting Services, “2013-ELA & Math, District & Building Aggregates”, August 7, 2013 at: http://www.p12.nysed.gov/irs/pressRelease/20130807/home.html.

The next edition of my blog will address the FAILED UNDER STRESS perspective.